We all know there are plenty of reasons to be in favor of open source software. It increases personal freedom, it helps people become better developers by sharing in the advances made by others, it provides many eyes to find bugs, it can respond more quickly to changing market demands, and so on. But what about reasons for corporations to get involved? For publicly-traded corporations, the bottom line comes down to one thing: does getting involved with open source software help the stock price?
A new study reported in the Wall Street Journal tries to answer that question with some historical analysis. The author, Oliver Alexy, dug for press releases from publicly-traded companies that announced they were making previously-proprietary products open source. After eliminating announcements that had other substantial content, he was left with a pool of 38 announcements from 30 companies. Then he took a look at the stock price on the days surrounding the announcements.
The results? Announcing an open source transition gave an average 1.6% boost to the stock price - if the company also "clearly communicated a short-term revenue model." Just saying you're going open source without concrete plans to make money resulted in a 1.6% stock drop on the average.
We should be careful not to overanalyze these results; 38 announcements spread over nearly a decade is not a large pool, and 2% stock swings are not that uncommon. But it looks like this study confirms something open source proponents would like to believe: that investors are just as confident in open source as in closed source, as long as you can show them the money. Now it's up to us to deliver.
Comments
Add CommentBy an anonymous user on May. 15, 2008
I'm not sure what data is being gathered, but recently there was a post on this blog that talked about how open source was killing the Sun earnings and stock price. Plus the 2% stock swing could just be market timing - if the NASDAQ is up 1% its not uncommon to see a stock up 3-4% even if there is NO news. An interesting report would be how the companies have fared for 12-18 months after open sourcing their products
It all depends on your return on invested capital. So, OSS companies that are getting a lot of software developed for "free" and generating services revenue then it will be valued like a services company - which is very different from a traditional enterprise software company which is very different from the multiple you see on advertising driven internet businesses. Think Drupal v/s Ning. I think if SAP went open source it would kill SAP's stock price....
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